Wednesday, May 7
I watched the second round of the NHL playoffs very closely, maybe less for the games, than to scout the defensemen the Hawks would seem to have the most interest in pursuing in the off-season. On talent alone, the Sharks' Brian Campbell is clearly the most complete player, but he didn't have a very good playoff with San Jose, after two excellent playoffs in a row with Buffalo. Campbell didn't show the physical edge he often displayed for the Sabres. The first question, of course, is why? Did he simply not fit the Sharks' systems very well, or did the Sabres' systems enhance his assets, or both? How does he project into the Hawks lineup? Campbell will cost the most of any of the free agents, but maybe less than he would have before the playoffs. The Hawks want him, but I'm not sure he'll come at any price.
The Avs' John-Michael Liles showed me more than I'd seen from him previously. Liles was dynamite on the power play, and has a shot that is both heavy and accurate. He'd certainly help the Hawks on the back end. But defensively Liles made several mistakes, including one that almost cost the Avs an early game with Minnesota back in round one. I'm also told by Hawks' insiders that Liles "doesn't do much for them". He'll only be a Hawk if Dale Tallon strikes out elsewhere, and Liles comes real cheap.
I found Montreal's Marc Streit disappointing. This was a guy who showed terrific speed and range and helped lead the Habs to the best power-play in the league. But in the playoffs, Streit and the Habs stopped getting the puck on net. They relied too much on finesse and not enough on bang. My insider tells me the Hawks think he's too soft to be a regular defenseman. Now, that said, Streit could fill a Jason Williams role as a forward who drops back to play D on the power play. So watch the interplay in money between both of these sets of partners. The Hawks could play one against the other as long as they stay interested in Streit.
And here's another name to watch -- the Rangers' Michal Roszival. My insider tells me the Hawks' really like Roszival because he's a different body type, as opposed to Campbell who has a simliar build as Duncan Keith. He doesn't alwasy play that big, but he can take up space in front defensively. Roszival also put up big numbers this year with 13 goals and 25 assists. He'll also come a lot cheaper than Campbell. It's way too early to try to handicap this field, because the parameters change once the sides start talking money, but it would not surprise me at all if Roszival becomes the Hawks' primary target.
As for the series' themselves, how great was that 4 overtime game between the Sharks and Stars? I staved off exhaustion to stay up until 1:30 in the morning (with a 6:45 wake-up call to make a tee time the next day!) to watch the end. But I could tell people I made it, unlike several of my hockey fan golf partners, all of whom claim to have fallen asleep, only to wake up to see the Stars celebrating. But I'd already invested nearly 6 hours in the game. I'd made the commitment! Knowing that every Stars' opportunity could end the Sharks' season, and knowing that every Sharks' chance would severely damage the Stars, I was on the edge of my bed for every chance. I accidentally woke up my 4-year-old when Nabokov robbed Richards in the first overtime. And I gritted my teeth when Turco rolled on his back to smother Clowe on the 2-on-1 in the 3rd OT (mostly because I REALLY needed to go to bed at that point). But when Morrow tipped Robidas' sweet pass past Nabokov to finally end it, I had to smile. A well-played game ended on a well-played goal.
In analyzing the series' as a whole, astute readers will notice that I went oh-for-4. In the business, we call this burying the lead. Briefly, Detroit was extremely impressive, though Colorado's early injuries strained their ability to keep up. The Penguins looked terrific, beating the Rangers both in the Penguins' style and in the Rangers' style. Reminder to self, when trying to pick a matchup of contrasting styles, pick the team with the best individual player. Evgeni Malkin was that player in this series. And the Flyers smothered the Canadiens' offense and power play, though I think the Canadiens stifled themselves just as much.
Looking ahead to the Conference Finals, it's almost impossible to pick against the Red Wings, but the Stars can make them pay with their power play if the Wings get undisciplined. I also like Marty Turco's ability to shut down a Detroit team which has sometimes had trouble finishing. I'll continue to pick against the grain and take the Stars in 6. In the East, I'll be very interested to see how the Penguins react to the Flyers, who will give them a more physical ride than either of the teams the Pens' faced early. They bumped off the finesse-oriented Canadiens, and I think they can do it again to the Pens. I'll go against the grain here, too, and take the Fly Guys in 6. Then again, I'm 5-7 through 12 playoff series so far.
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Tony writes from Chicago:
Do you think Kane and Toews might split the Calder vote?
That's an interesting perception to try to gauge. Certainly, there is a concern that the writers who didn't see the Blackhawks this year, or those who only saw them once, won't know which of the Hawks' rookies was the more dominant player. They may also hear the buzz that although Kane played every game, Toews may project to have more up-side. Maybe Nick Backstrom gets overwhelming support from the Eastern Conference writers. As the voting got closer, I think you also heard writers trying to come up with the smart line that bucks conventional wisdom -- that is, they try to sound astute by coming up with the argument that presents the dark horse. But I think when those writers sit in their dark, dank apartments with peanut shells strewn about the floor and dishes piling up in the sink, that they tend to vote for justice. And I find it hard to believe that anyone who saw the Hawks play at all this year wouldn't pick Pat Kane.
Tyler is also in Chicago and asks:
Did you see that Stars/Sharks game that went 4 OTs? Who has the advantage in that type of game?
Well, I can tell you it's not the media. I covered the Stars-Sabres Stanley Cup Final, when Game 6 went to 3 overtimes. All I can tell you is, when that night was over I was exhausted, and of course I hadn't spent nearly the energy that the players had. Generally, the team that has the most offensive options tends to win those games. I say this because teams usually win these games when the opposing defense or goalie cracks, rather than with some slick-looking transition play in open ice. The team with more offensive options forces this fracture by keeping up pressure over several periods.
My man Drew lives in Evanston and asks:
Please tell me you think the rival Red Wings are going to lose to the Stars in the third round. I was shocked to see them demolish the Avs so quickly.
I keep trying to pick against them, Drew. So far it isn't working.
And, at the last, we go over the border to Appleton, Wisconsin, and Cheesehead Samuel:
I'm excited to watch the Flyers/Penguins series. I didn't see the Penguins or Flyers getting this far, what has pushed them over the edge?
Sam, in the Flyers' case, I think you see the hope for Hawks' fans. It didn't take much for Philadelphia to turn things around. A couple of nice free agent signings, a real NHL goaltender, and the arrival of some prospects all at the same time. Unlike the Blackhawks, in their present constitution, a lot of those Flyers had prior playoff experience. Even Marty Biron, who had not started in a post-season game, had certainly been around the presence of the playoffs. Don't forget, there was a stretch early in the season where the Flyers were the best team in the East. If a team can establish that at some point in a season, it can almost always come back to that touchstone. The Penguins also foretell a rosy future for the Blackhawks. What you are seeing with this team is a bunch of young stars kind of all clicking in to reach their potential at once. Theirs is simply a case of talent conquering inexperience. That can happen for the Hawks, too.
